iCHSTM 2013 Programme • Version 5.3.6, 27 July 2013 • ONLINE (includes late changes)
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Cleanrooms of knowledge. Why is the Moore’s Law exponential?
Peter Koval | Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Germany

According to David Brock, the original prediction of Gordon Moore which became later known as the Moore’s Law was just ,one voice‘ among many in 1965. In the proposed paper I would like to discuss the historical and technopolitical possibilities of this discursive formation. The development and production of the electronic radio proximity fuze during the WWII proved that the electronics can be made not only more robust but also significantly smaller, more powerful and cheaper. With growing complexity of us-military electronics after the WWII the reliability of the electronic (weapon) systems became critical. While solving the economical (development, maintenance) and technological (growing complexity) reliability problems, new knowledge of electronics emerged. At first the knowledge of electronics – getting smaller, more complex and cheaper – was formalized so that mathematical (statistical) methods could be applied to the reliability problem. As a result the first ,exponential law‘ of electronics was formulated in 1953 by Richard Carhart. With time, ,integration‘ and ,miniaturization‘ became prevalent solutions to the reliability problem. Drawing on historical observations many prospective techno-economical predictions of growth – in terms of complexity, miniaturization and cost – were made. In this predictions the knowledge of economists and cutting edge insights of engineers were put together to formulate the possibilities and limits of future growth. The analysis of the engineers’ discourse in the 1950s and early 1960s shows also that the exponential curve became common visual representation in such predictions.